Today’s Pulse On Atlanta’s Housing Market

For a few years now housing prices have been steadily climbing higher, especially in the Metro Atlanta area. If your house was immaculate or at least in decent condition, it would sell. Chances are you would have multiple offers on your property. But things look like they are changing.

First things first, if you have a property anywhere in the Metro Atlanta area, we would like the opportunity to make you an offer for it just the way it is. No hassles and a fast easy sale. You can contact us at (770) 756-8680 or visit this page and complete a short form and we will contact you shortly.

Okay – now on to why you are here – to learn what’s happening in today’s real estate market.

Bidding Wars Are Down

It looks like the days of putting a property on the market and the price getting run up by multiple offers are becoming a thing of the past for sellers. Don’t believe us? Check out this from Redfin’s Blog about bidding wars by Dana Olsen:

Just 10.4 percent of offers written by Redfin agents on behalf of their homebuying customers faced a bidding war in August, down from more than 42 percent a year earlier. That overtakes last month’s 11.4 percent bidding-war rate as the lowest on record since at least 2011.

The national bidding war rate reached a high of 59 percent in March 2018, then started to drop as homebuyers reached their limit with sky-high housing prices and rising mortgage rates in the middle of last year. As the housing market has cooled slightly, so has competition to purchase homes.

Continue Reading – 10% of Redfin Offers Faced Bidding Wars in August, a New 8-Year Low

We suggest you visit that page and look at the graph that shows the National trend and you will see it hit a peek of around 60% in 2017 nationally and is now down around 10%.

Recession Fears

If you watch any news at all you know that we are in the midst of a trade war with China. While we believe this hurts the Chinese more than us, yet it still reeks havoc on the Stock Market. Add to that every other country in the world has a slowing economic market. All of this makes buyers think twice about purchasing a property, especially if they think there is a down turn about to happen. Everybody remembers the housing bubble of ’08, it’s fresh in their minds. Also there was an inverted yield curve in the month of August, which is usually a good indicator of a recession looming.

Lisa Chamoff wrote about this in a recent post on Forbes:

Homebuyer confidence is dropping, and more than half of current house hunters plan to put their home search on hold until the economy recovers, according to survey data released this week by Realtor.com.

The survey this month by Toluna Research found that more than 36 percent of 755 active home buyers expect the U.S. to go through a recession next year. This is up by about 6 percent when shoppers were asked the same question this past March.

Continue Reading – More Than A Third Of Home Buyers Think A Recession Is Coming

Atlanta’s Housing Market

So where does Atlanta’s housing market fall in all of this. Inside the perimeter we are seeing some change. We have seen properties listed longer as well as sellers having to slash their asking price.

Michael E. Kanell had this to say about it in the AJC earlier this year:

Yet the number of homes sold during the month was 8.9 percent below that of March 2018 as fewer buyers and sellers found common ground. Home sales volume has been declining for several months in metro Atlanta, including a 7.4 percent drop in February.

Read The Full Article Here

Over the years we have always seen inside the perimeter to be effected first, then spread to the surrounding counties.

So Are We Headed For Another Housing Crisis?

In all actuality, we don’t think so. There were two major factors that really had an effect on the crash of ’07-’08.

• First, there were a lot of homes available. Builders were going crazy putting up new subdivisions everywhere throughout the Metro Atlanta area. The supply far outweighed the demand.
• Second, Banks and Mortgage companies were making very risky loans and basically lending money to people that couldn’t afford to make the payments. Since the crash though lending standards have tightened up, to a degree.

In Conclusion

So what’s the take away from this? We do think there will be a correction coming, no market keeps going up for ever. At some time there has to be some sort of correction and prices will probably drop a bit. If the China trade war continues or there is some other global economic catastrophe, it may be a little more severe. However, we aren’t trying to paint an all “Doom and Gloom” scenario!

Bottom line, if you have a house that you are thinking of selling, now is the time to do it. This is especially true if you have a house that is a “handy-man special” that needs some repairs or needs major work and you can’t afford to make the repairs and need to sell as is.

Even if you house is ready to list with an agent – it’s still a good time to sell. Better now than later and have to wait until after any correction because you never know how long that will take.

Here’s a short video that goes over a few of the points we covered and will expand more on these thoughts:

Everyone over the age of 30 remembers the housing bubble of ’07. If you had a home for sale during ’07 to ’09 there was a good chance that you were having to sell your house way below what you paid for it. This caused a lot of stress on homeowners that had to move because of job relocations or for whatever reason they had to move. Some homeowners were forced into being what is known as “accidental landlords” to either keep from losing so much money, or just not being able to find a buyer. Now there are a lot of reports that indicate that we may be headed for another bubble 🙁

Is The Housing Market Going To Crash Again?

There were a few factors that caused the housing crash of ’07 – ’09. One of the major factors that caused the problem was subprime mortgages. In short that is a mortgage given to someone that really can’t afford the note. Many of these loans were interest only, meaning they only made the interest payments and paid nothing towards the principal. You would think that most people in their right mind would know that this is a bad idea!

Here is a great explanation of what happened:

The financial crisis was primarily caused by deregulation in the financial industry. That permitted banks to engage in hedge fund trading with derivatives. Banks then demanded more mortgages to support the profitable sale of these derivatives. They created interest-only loans that became affordable to subprime borrowers.

In 2004, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate just as the interest rates on these new mortgages reset.

Housing prices started falling as supply outpaced demand. That trapped homeowners who couldn’t afford the payments, but couldn’t sell their house. When the values of the derivatives crumbled, banks stopped lending to each other. That created the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession.

Read The Full Article “What Caused the 2008 Global Financial Crisis?” Here

That’s a great explanation from the Balance, far better than we could explain 🙂 . One thing to note that we aren’t really seeing now is that supply isn’t out pacing demand, so that is a little of good news.

So the subprime mortgage industry really kicked things off. Too many people had properties that they couldn’t afford and couldn’t sell their house.  Now here is some disturbing news from Curbed:

Financial Times reports that subprime mortgage bond issuance doubled in the first quarter of 2018 compared to a year ago, going from $666 million to $1.3 billion. Furthermore, it quotes a financial analyst predicting that issuance for the year will hit $10 billion, which is more than double the $4.1 billion issued last year. For context, the value of American subprime mortgages was estimated at $1.3 trillion in March 2007.

Read The Full Article “Subprime mortgage bonds are making a comeback” Here

That even makes us sweat a little. Further into that article they state that there are some new companies that have jumped into the market and have rebranded theses subprime mortgages as “noprime”.

Now on to current property values. This plays a big part of the equation. Prices have been steadily rising for at least 6 years now in most markets, to the point where a lot of properties are over valued. Check out these comparisons from American Banker:

CoreLogic found in comparing 380 metro areas that in January 2000, 6% were overvalued while 87% were at value. But by November 2006, 67% were overvalued and 32% were at value.

At the bottom of the market in March 2011, 7% were overvalued, 42% were at value and 52% were undervalued.

As of December 2017, there was a more even distribution among the three groups: 33% overvalued, 35% at value and 32% undervalued.

Read The Full Article “Housing bubble or not, the real estate market is in trouble” Here

Another disturbing trend. Notice that 33% of properties are overvalued as of last December compared to 67% in November of ’06 at the start of the crash.

Lastly, check out this video from Faye Bishop:

Summing It Up

So when will we have another crash? No one really knows. It does look like if things continue on the current track that one could definitely be in the cards. The only thing that is a saving grace right now we think is that builders have not started building houses like they were 12 – 15 years ago, keeping the supply in check.

So the point of all of this is that if you need to sell your house that is in need of major repairs or updates and you know that putting your property on the market will take some time to get a buyer, you should consider selling now. If you are wondering how to sell a property quickly, you can visit our website for a free, no obligation offer on your property – or call us at 770 756-8680.